Broncos-Chiefs scouting report: Banged-up Denver contends with Patrick Mahomes, desperate Kansas City team

Chiefs - at Broncos - When Sunday p m Where Empower Field at Mile High Stadium TV radio CBS AM FM Broncos-Chiefs series Here we go again The Broncos endured a long period of futility in this matchup straight losses from November to early October before definitively toppling the Chiefs - on Oct Denver split this series - last year drubbing Kansas City - in the final event of the regular season as the Chiefs rested their starters The Broncos are - - against the Chiefs all-time In the spotlight Can Nik Bonitto and company take down Patrick Mahomes On Monday night the Broncos -year-old edge rusher stood in a parking lot in Federal Heights depositing box after box of Thanksgiving meals into the trunks of families pulling through a makeshift drive-thru in Thrive Church Bonitto wore a hoodie sweats and a large black brace on his wrist He has been wearing the brace since hurting his wrist in the Broncos Week opener against the Titans The splint didn t much hurt his ability to pick up turkeys And it certainly hasn t hurt his ability to gobble up opposing offenses as Bonitto put together another dominant performance against the Raiders last Thursday with eight pressures and sacks But the greatest challenge of Bonitto s career year first in the NFL in QB pressures third in sacks will come Sunday when the Chiefs and one of the NFL s the greater part elusive quarterbacks come to Empower Field That s the guy that everybody looks to when it comes to sacking the quarterback Bonitto noted Monday He s one of the best in our challenge so for sure it s going to be exciting The Patrick Mahomes of the last three years is not quite the same game-breaker the NFL saw in his mid- s He has dropped from the league s undisputed top quarterback to just arguably the top dog He lingers tied for th in yards per attempt and a distant th in passer rating through weeks The Chiefs are more vulnerable than at any point since the Mahomes Era began in sitting at - and a distant third in the AFC West First-round rookie tackle Josh Simmons has missed the last four weeks while dealing with a family matter Defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo s unit has been typically excellent but has sagged on third down and in the red zone And yet Kansas City is still as complex to tackle as a laser maze because of the -year-old Mahomes who s playing a shiftier brand of football than ever Mahomes sack rate the past two years has been the highest of his career Still the Chiefs rank ninth in the NFL overall in sack rate allowed And Mahomes has gotten the ball out at an average rate of seconds in more than ticks faster than any season of his NFL career He is a shapeshifter under center capable of adjusting his style and timing with each passing season in Kansas City And this year with a shaky situation at tackle between Simmons and backup Jaylon Moore Mahomes is either punishing teams on quick intermediate routes or with his legs Opposing defenses fear Mahomes much more than running back Isiah Pacheco or Kareem Hunt as the Chiefs have faced one of the highest rates of defensive-back-heavy formations in the NFL when running the ball according to the league s Next Gen Stats Pacheco and Hunt haven t been able to take much advantage against a light box both averaging less than yards a carry on such attempts But Mahomes has feasted yards a carry and yards with his legs when defenses go with seven or less near the line of scrimmage His one weakness Pressure Mahomes is -of- passing when under duress according to Next Gen Stats Broncos defensive coordinator Vance Joseph has done an outstanding job of throwing pressure at Mahomes across the Broncos and Chiefs last three meetings and held him to a total of two touchdowns in that time It s more about getting them covered and making them hold the ball enough until we can get there Joseph reported Thursday Denver will need another monster effort from Bonitto and company at Empower Field on Sunday in a match that could assert them as the new class of the AFC West This division s been run by the Chiefs for so various years now Bonitto reported Monday So I mean if we re going to want to be that company to win the division and reach the goals that we reported we want we re gonna have to go through them and beat them Who has the edge When Broncos run Denver will play without bell-cow J K Dobbins for the first time this year in specific truly horrendous timing Suddenly rookie RJ Harvey will be thrown to the wolves against Chris Jones Nick Bolton and company Harvey has only gotten -plus carries once this year and is averaging yards a carry outside of a -yard pop in Week Kansas City has a top- rushing defense through nine games in Edge Chiefs When Broncos pass Bo Nix has been a bottom-tier NFL quarterback this year outside of the fourth quarter The clutch gene helps Against the Raiders last week the script veritably flipped Nix was in rhythm in the second quarter before utterly falling out of it in the second half Denver will need juice from Nix early and late against Kansas City with Dobbins out and an untested Harvey in the run encounter This is the kind of matchup where the Broncos start to determine if he s the guy for a long-term extension after Edge Chiefs RELATED Broncos analysis To unleash Bo Nix and unlock offense Sean Payton must start at the beginning When Chiefs run The key here is Patrick Mahomes Lead back Isiah Pacheco s vitality is up in the air after a sprained MCL in Week and backfield mate Kareem Hunt has averaged yards a carry across his last four NFL seasons But Mahomes is on pace for the best rushing season of his career and has put up yards on the ground and two touchdowns in his last two games The Broncos have handled dual-threat QBs with aplomb this year but Mahomes is a different kind Slight edge Broncos When Chiefs pass The Broncos still don t have cornerback Pat Surtain II pec The Chiefs have Mahomes even if coordinator Vance Joseph has proven effective at containing him WR Rashee Rice has been back for three weeks too adding a much more dangerous element to Kansas City s attack Slight edge Chiefs Special teams Chiefs punter Matt Araiza has pinned the second-highest percentage of boots inside the of any punter in the NFL this season Broncos rookie Jeremy Crawshaw now sits below league-average in that category and the punting differential in Raiders-Broncos nearly swung a encounter for Las Vegas The Broncos do get a huge lift with the return of All-Pro Marvin Mims Jr and Chiefs kicker Harrison Butker has been iffy this year Edge Even Coaching The Andy Reid-Matt Nagy-Steve Spagnuolo trio is as proven as any in the NFL Joseph is one of the highest-regarded defensive coordinators in the NFL at the moment but Sean Payton has plenty to prove with his play-calling and offensive execution after the past two weeks Slight edge Chiefs Tale of the tape Broncos Chiefs Total offense th th Rush offense th th Pass offense th th Points per event th th Total defense rd th Run defense th th Pass defense th th Points allowed rd th By the numbers Patrick Mahomes passing yards this season when he isn t pressured the greater part in the NFL Chiefs All-Pro Chris Jones quarterback hits through nine games this year on pace for his fewest total since Broncos All-Pro Zach Allen s quarterback hits through games this year the the majority in the NFL Difference between Allen s QB-hit total and second-place Nik Bonitto s the same difference between Bonitto s total and th-place Leonard Williams Bo Nix s game-winning drives in the largest part in the NFL Percentage of snaps Broncos linebacker Dre Greenlaw has played where he s recorded a tackle X-factors Broncos LB Justin Strnad He s stepped up for two years in the face of injuries and Strnad will step back into the limelight against Kansas City after starting ILB Alex Singleton revealed Monday he d had surgery to remove a testicular tumor Strnad mentioned Monday the Broncos will be playing for Singleton and this Kansas City matchup will put Strnad s skills in coverage and pass-rush on full display as Vance Joseph tries to disrupt Patrick Mahomes Chiefs WR Xavier Worthy He s one of the fastest players in the league but much like the Broncos utilization of speedster Mims Worthy s usage comes and goes with each passing week Andy Reid disclosed this past week that Kansas City isn t down on Xavier Worthy and the Broncos will need to account for Worthy on every single snap without defensive leaders Pat Surtain II and green-dot captain Singleton Post predictions Parker Gabriel Broncos reporter Kansas City Denver The Broncos are - in one-score games The Chiefs are - And yet K C is a -point road favorite against the organization with the NFL s longest home winning streak Sean Payton will readily remind anyone listening that you are what your record says you are but your record does not necessarily forecast what you re expected to be going forward The West tightens by one turn Luca Evans Broncos reporter Kansas City Denver This is not the week to be missing J K Dobbins Pat Surtain II and Alex Singleton who are among the bulk critical players on this Broncos roster Kansas City is vulnerable So is Denver suddenly with a rash of injuries and absences Let s circle back to this matchup in Week on Christmas Related Articles Broncos podcast Everything you need to know about Denver s Sunday showdown vs Kansas City Why Broncos Troy Franklin has supplanted Courtland Sutton in WR volume Broncos analysis To unleash Bo Nix and unlock offense Sean Payton must start at the beginning Around the NFL Travis Hunter s season comes to an end and Russell Wilson gets benched Again In days after cancer surgery Broncos Alex Singleton is still helping Denver s linebackers Troy Renck columnist Broncos Chiefs Everything screams loss for the Broncos with their injuries and the Chiefs urgency But the reality is the Broncos have a path to preeminence Every big battle Patrick Mahomes has lost over the last limited years involves a defensive line capable of making him miserable The Broncos will get to Mahomes and the upset hinges on creating turnovers and a short field for Bo Nix The template is the Texans meeting Sean Keeler columnist Broncos Chiefs If Andy Reid s - career record after a bye doesn t scare you this number might The Chiefs are - in division road tilts since from Nov to the end of the regular season That one loss The KC JV Contest here in Week of last year When they try they fly But once you get that vibe it s hard to let that go With Empower rocking and the defense rolling Mile High Magic somehow finds a way Want more Broncos news Sign up for the Broncos Insider to get all our NFL analysis